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Manhattan New
Development Market Report

4nd Quarter 2015

Introduction

MNS is proud to present the Fourth Quarter 2015 edition of our New Development Market Report.

New Development Sales data, defined as such “Arms-Length” first offering transactions where the seller is considered a “Sponsor”, was compiled from the Automated City Register Information System (ACRIS) for sponsor sales that traded during the Fourth Quarter of 2015 (10/01/15 – 12/31/15). All data summarized is on a median basis.

Market Snapshot

Year-Over-Year Median PPSF - up 5.42%
Quarter-Over-Quarter Median PPSF - up 10.28%

Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price - up 25.18%
Quarter-Over-Quarter Median Sales Price - up 19.81%

Manhattan New Development Sponsor Sales - up 8.37% from last quarter
Neighborhood with the Most New Dev Sales: Upper West Side - 21.5% of Manhattan New Dev Sales

Total New Development Sales Volume - up 28% to $1,946,380,110 from $1,516,742,266in 3Q15

Largest Quarterly Up-Swing: Gramercy Park
PPSF $2,300/SF from $1,534/SF
Sales Price $3,168,000 from $1,781,938

Largest Quarterly Down-Swing: Upper East Side
PPSF $1,434 from $1,757
Sales Price $1,448,461 from $1,670,000

Highest New Development Sale PPSF:
140 West 12th Street PH8 - $ 6,464 PPSF

Highest New Development Sale:
157 West 57 Street 54B – $34,369,438

Market summary:

Sponsor sales activity rose by 8.37% in the 4th quarter of 2015 – from 502 units sold in 3Q15 to 544 units sold in 4Q15. The total sales volume continued to increase at a sturdy rate of 28.33% from $1,516,742,266 in 3Q15 to $1,964,380,110 this quarter. Median sales price too surged by 19.82% - from $1,888,309 to $2,262,510, as the median price per square foot increased by 10.29% - from $1,669 to $1,840.
The following neighborhoods experienced the largest quantities of sponsor sales in the fourth quarter of 2015; Upper West Side (117 units), Upper East Side (82 units) and Midtown West (81 units). The sponsor sale with the highest price was seen in Midtown West at Extell’s One57, where Apt 54B was sold for $34,369,438. The highest price per square foot was recorded at the Greenwich Lane on 140 West 12th Street where Apt PH8 sold for $6,463.99 per square foot
Similar to the previous quarter, 3 Bedroom and larger sized units accounted for the majority of sponsor sales this quarter at 53% of the total 544 units sold. Conversely, studios saw the least amount of sponsor sales at 4%.

Market up-swings:

The highest market up-swing was seen in Gramercy Park area, where the median price per square foot rose by 50% from $1,534 in 3Q15 to $2,300 in 4Q15 and median sales price by 77.8% from $1,781,938 to $3,168,000. For the purpose of this study, since Flatiron is not an analyzed neighborhood, we have included sponsor sales from 10 Madison Square West and 400 Park Avenue South in the Gramercy Park sample for reasons of proximity and applicability. The growth noted in the report for Gramercy is solely from sales from these two buildings – 36 sales from 400 Park Ave South with a median price per square foot of $2,316 and median price of $2,372,512; and 8 sales from 10 Madison Square West with a median price per square foot of $2,124 and median price of $4,999,500.

Market down-swings:

The Upper East Side experienced the largest down-swing in median price per square foot at -18.4%, from $1,757 in 3Q15 to $1,434 in 4Q15. This downward shift is largely contributed to several smaller sized and lower priced apartments from the Carnegie Park Condominium at 200 East 94th Street. SoHo and Greenwich Village saw the largest drops in median sales price, decreasing by 37.3% and 36.9%, respectively. Both decreases were due to drastic changes in the number of sponsor sales in 4Q15 compared to 3Q15. SoHo saw 9 sponsor sales in 3Q15, compared to 3 in 4Q15, and Greenwich Village saw 3 sponsor sales in 3Q15, and 56 in 4Q15.

Inventory Analysis:

Most of Manhattan’s neighborhood saw an increase in the number of sponsor sales compared to previous quarters. The Upper West Side, Upper East Side and Midtown West contributed to 51% of the total 579 sponsor sales this quarter, namely from the following buildings: 200 East 94th st, 50 Riverside Blvd, 175 West 95th st, 301 West 53rd st and 135 West 52nd st. Conversely, the East Village and Lower East Side saw no sponsor sale activity this quarter.

Tracking: Neighborhoods where the majority of each unit type was sold in 3Q15

Studios -Upper West Side (46%)
One Bedrooms - Midtown West (28%)
Two Bedrooms - Midtown West (34%)
1,500 + SF - Upper West Side (25%)

The Report Explained

Included in this research are walk-up and elevator new development condominium buildings, as well as new conversion condominiums if the sales were applicable sponsor transactions. Excluded from the report are all cooperative sales.

Unit types such as studios, one-bedrooms, and two-bedroom units are grouped by square footage ranges.

Studios are under 700 square feet, one-bedrooms are under 900 square feet, and two-bedrooms are under 1,450 square feet. Added to the report is the over-sized unit type that ranges from 1,500 square feet to 7,000 square feet.

Presented with a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparison, both city-wide and by neighborhood, MNS New Development Report™ tracks the market trends throughout Manhattan and Brooklyn. MNS offers a unique insight into the new development market by tracking stalled construction sites on a quarterly basis, a great indicator of where development in general is moving. MNS is your source to find neighborhood price per square foot analysis, average sale prices, unit type sales trends, overall price movement, neighborhood inventory comparisons, and absorption rates.

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Note: All market data is collected and compiled by MNS's marketing department. The information presented here is intended for instructive purposes only and has been gathered from sources deemed reliable, though it may be subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice.

If you would like to republish this report on the web, please be sure to source it as the "Manhattan New Development Report" with a link back to its original location (http://www.mns.com/manhattan_new_dev_report).

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