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Introduction

MNS is proud to present the Fourth Quarter 2011 edition of our New Development Market Report. New Development Sales data, defined as such “Arms-Length” first offering transactions where the seller is considered a “Sponsor”, was compiled from the Automated City Register Information System (ACRIS) for sponsor sales that traded during the Fourth Quarter of 2011 (10/01/11 – 12/31/11). All data summarized is on a median basis. This month also includes quarterly tracking graphs over an eight quarter look back and will continue to track the trends going forward.

Market Snapshot

Year Over Year Median PPSF - up 14%
Quarter Over Quarter Median PPSF - up 4%

Year Over Year Median Sales Price - up 18%
Quarter Over Quarter Median Sales Price - down 3%

Manhattan New Development sales inventory - down 33% from last quarter.
Neighborhood with the most New Dev Sales: Upper West Side (18% of Manhattan New Development Sales)

Total New Development Sales Volume – down 14% to $675 Million from $790 Million in 3Q11

Largest quarterly up-swing: Murray Hill
PPSF: $1,596/SF from $1,029/SF
Sales Price: $1.86M from $998K

Largest quarterly down-swing: East Village
PPSF: $1,042 from $1,168
Sales Price: $468K from $870K

Highest New Development Sale:
471 Washington St - PH Combo - $17,055,687

Market summary:

Overall, 2011 was a dramatic year for New Development Sales compared to 2010. Sales numbers are up from an annual 2010 median of $1.2M and $1,099/SF to $1.5M and $1,235/SF for 2011.

Year-over-Year Manhattan New Development Condominium sales numbers are up 14% (versus 8% last year) on a price per square foot basis ($1,296/SF this quarter versus $1,113/SF in 4Q10). Sales prices are up 18% ($1.487M this quarter versus just under $1.224M in 4Q10).

Compared to last quarter 3Q11, Manhattan New Development price per square foot median numbers are up 4% to $1,296/SF from $1,243/SF but median sales prices are down 3% to $1.48M from $1.53M.

Market up-swings:

Where it’s up, it was really up. Overall, price per square foot moved on average $250/SF this quarter. Huge jumps in median price per foot occurred this quarter in neighborhoods including Upper West Side at $1,680/SF, Midtown West at $1,461/SF and Murray Hill at $1,596/SF. Downtown jumps were in Greenwich Village at $ 3,072/SF and Tribeca at $1,817/SF.

The tributes to these large numbers for 4Q11:

Market down-swings:

On the downside, price per square foot moved on average $90/SF, indicating many stable neighborhood sales prices. Chelsea lost a little luster this quarter with a 4Q11 median of $1,296/SF (vs $1,409/SF in 3Q11). Just 11 sponsor units closed this quarter. Absorption of the 63 units on the market listed at a median of $1,390 is estimated to be about 15 months.

Inventory analysis:

The fourth quarter of 2011 brought 32% less sponsor sales to the city registry, compared to last quarter, but again this quarter, the Upper West Side had the most new development sales with 18% of Manhattan’s inventory. Combined Harlem, Upper East, Upper West and Midtown West had 59% of all new development sales this quarter.

FiDi’s new development sales were down 56%, but the steady increase in pricing is a sign of strength and establishment in the neighborhood. Third quarter’s median pricing was $870/SF versus the fourth quarter’s $922/SF. On the market inventory with at least 130 units split between condos at 99 John and 75 Wall and the condo-hotels of Setai and the W should keep this neighborhood active for years.

In tracking the neighborhoods that sold the most amount of 4Q11 new development inventory per unit size:

Studios - Harlem (29%)
One Bedrooms - Midtown West (25%)
Two Bedrooms - Harlem (17%)
Three Bedrooms (1500 +) - Upper West Side (43%)

Market Snapshot

The Report Explained

Included in this research are walk-up and elevator new development condominium buildings, as well as new conversion condominiums if the sales were applicable sponsor transactions. Excluded from the report are all cooperative sales. Unit types such as studios, 1-bedrooms, and 2-bedroom units are grouped by square footage ranges. Studios are under 700 square feet, 1-bedrooms are under 900 square feet, and 2-bedrooms are under 1,450 square feet. Added to the report is the over-sized unit type that ranges from 1,500 square feet to 5,500 square feet.

Presented with a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparison, both city-wide and by neighborhood, MNS' New Development Report tracks the market trends throughout Manhattan and Brooklyn . MNS offers a unique insight to the New Development market by tracking stalled construction sites on a quarterly basis, a great indicator of where development in general is moving. MNS is your source to find neighborhood price per square foot analysis, average sale prices, unit type sales trends, overall price movement, neighborhood inventory comparisons, and absorption rates.

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Note: All market data is collected and compiled by MNS marketing department. The information presented here is intended for instructive purposes only and has been gathered from sources deemed reliable, though it may be subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. If you would like to republish this report on the web, please be sure to source it as the "Manhattan New Development Report" with a link back to its original location (http://www.mns.com/manhattan_new_development_report).

If you would like to republish this report on the web, please be sure to source it as the “Manhattan New Development Market Report” with a link back to its original location (http://www.mns.com/manhattan_new_dev_report).