Manhattan New Development Market Report

Updated: 3Q11

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Table of Contents:

1. Introduction
2. Market Snapshot
3. Neighborhood Price Trends
   • Harlem
   • Upper West Side
   • Upper East Side
   • Midtown West
   • Midtown East
   • Murray Hill
   • Chelsea
   • Gramercy Park
   • Greenwich Village
   • East Village
   • SoHo
   • Lower East Side
   • TriBeCa
   • Financial District
   • Battery Park City
4. The Report Explained

Introduction

MNS is proud to present the Third Quarter 2011 edition of our New Development Market Report. New Development Sales data, defined as such “Arms-Length” first offering transactions where the seller is considered a “Sponsor”, was compiled from the Automated City Register Information System (ACRIS) for sponsor sales that traded during the Third Quarter of 2011 (07/01/11 - 09/30/11). All data summarized is on a median basis. This month also includes
quarterly tracking graphs over a seven quarter look back (1Q10) and will continue to track the trends going forward.

Market Snapshot

Year Over Year Median PPSF - up 8%
Quarter Over Quarter Median PPSF - up 4%

Year Over Year Median Sales Price - up 10%
Quarter Over Quarter Median Sales Price - up 3%

Manhattan New Development sales inventory - down 18% from last quarter.
Neighborhood with the most inventory: Upper West Side (20%)

Largest quarterly up-swing: Chelsea
PPSF: $1,409/SF from $1,142/SF
Sales Price: $1.58M from $1.17M

Largest quarterly down-swing: Lower East Side
PPSF: $940 from $980
Sales Price: $995K from $1.62M

Highest New Development Sale:
Metal Shutter Houses - 524 W 19 ST, # PH - $11,455,313

Market up-swings:

Overall, 2011 has faired better than 2010, with the biggest change occurring at the beginning of the year, a jump of 10% for median sales price per foot from $1,113/SF to $1,236/SF between 4Q10 and 1Q11.

Year-over-Year Manhattan New Development Condominium sales numbers are up 8% on a price per square foot basis ($1,243/SF this quarter versus $1,099/SF in 3Q10). Sales prices are up 10% ($1.5M this quarter versus just under $1.2M in 3Q10).

Compared to last quarter 2Q11, Manhattan New Development price per square foot median numbers are up 4% and median sales prices are up 3%.

Market up-swings:

This quarter was a story of multi-million dollar sales. The highest of those were sales at The Laureate on the Upper West Side at about $2,000/SF and a median sales price of $5M. Units started to close in August at prices starting at $3.1M up to $8.5M. But grounding the neighborhood prices back down to a median of $1,396/SF, were closings at the Aldyn, The Rushmore, and The Apthorp.

Closings at 15 Union Square West, Tribeca’s Sky Lofts and Soho Mews featured million dollar sales medians in their respective neighborhoods, a combined median of $3.5M for all three trophy buildings.

Sales at The Cammeyer and the Manhattan House this quarter are keeping Flatiron and the Upper East Side at a steady $1,450/SF and about a $2M median sales price.

Market down-swings:

The Lower East Side is a moving target when it comes to New Developments, and because so little inventory comes out in this neighborhood, just one development can shift this neighborhood dramatically. Sales from 115 Norfolk were over $1200/SF, but 17 Orchard brought the neighborhood down to $940.

Midtown-West is trending down as well, with the median sales price of $923,000 this quarter (versus $990,000 last quarter and last year). The New Development sales in this neighborhood, including Sheffied 57, Griffin Court and The Dillon, are off about 10% from their asking prices.

Inventory analysis:

The third quarter of 2011 brought 18% less sponsor sales to the city registry, compared to last quarter, but a major shift occurred from the lower part of Manhattan to the upper part. FiDi had the most sponsor sales in 2Q11, and this quarter 20% of the borough’s new development sales were in the Upper West Side.

Gramercy doubled its New Development presence with 25 closings from Tempo, at an appropriate neighborhood median of $1200/SF, while Murray Hill is disappearing from the New Development market as 303 E 33rd sells out this quarter at $1,029/SF.

In tracking the neighborhoods that sold the most amount of 3Q11 new development inventory per unit size:

FiDi - 18% of all studios
Upper West Side – 21% of all one bedrooms
Harlem – 20% of all two bedrooms
Upper West Side - 43% of all three bedrooms (1500+SF)

Market Snapshot